So yesterday I posted a bunch of charts to twitter breaking down salaries, not cap hits, by price ranges, in an effort to help us better evaluate the historical effectiveness of our teams’ GMs.
First, please remember these charts are forwards only. Points per 60 and Primary Points per 60 (Goals+Primary Asissts per 60 minutes played) are not particularly good evaluators of Defensemen, as that’s not the function of that role.
Second, these charts are in all situations played, including penalty kill and power play time. Why not use 5v5? Because players get paid for work on special teams, too.
Last, this includes (hopefully) every single contract that a team has touched within the span of 2006-15. These tools are meant more as a way to evaluate GMs than to call out specific players (though it’s pretty easy to figure out who some of them are. Hi Benn! Hi Seguin!)
To give us a jumping off point, here are a breakdown of the NHL averages.
As you can see, the boxes indicate similar levels of play across salary bands, making it hard to justify large contracts unless players are going way above and beyond those levels.
Here you can see that typically your defensive forwards have lower Scoring Chances For% Relative to their team, but that’s not unexpected when you play more time in the Defensive Zone (especially when you remember that PK time is added here, too). The only blip in this is when high potential forwards are on Entry Level Contracts (that $0.6-1m band) as they tend to get sheltered Zone Starts and produce better possession numbers.
Going forward, I only used SCF% Rel, as it is producing similar outcomes to CF% Rel, and has been shown to be a better predictor of goals.
A few questions that are not yet answered by these charts, but that I will be trying to follow up on:
1) How do we evaluate defensemen by salary bands?
2) Does this landscape change significantly if we just look at UFA/RFA years?
3) Does this change significantly if we pull out ELCs?
4) What is the impact of a single GM?
Anyway, here are all 30 teams, in alphabetical order by location, presented without commentary.
Arizona (includes time spent as Phoenix)
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Winnipeg (includes time spent as Atlanta)