In this shenanigans-filled episode, the Ladies love Jason Demers, say nice things about Brad Marchand (no, we’re not kidding), make a lot of boys cry, Carolyn goes off about the DoPS and Merrin finally admits her secret shame. Remember, everyone loves a good jazz square.
Hockey is back! Today the Ladies talk season predictions, Merrin’s emotions go all the way to 11, Carolyn needs to take a shower, Mattias Janmark makes the team, and Raffi Torres gets named the Aaron Burr of the hockey world.
Trigger Warrning from minute mark 3:30 – 4:30. (Also recommended that you start with the volume on low).
With the blockbuster Patrick Sharp trade, and the recent signing of Johnny Oduya, the jokes are pouring in about the new Blackhawks South. Jim Nill has mentioned several times that they’re the organization to mimic, so I wanted to take a look and see – just how alike are the two teams?
Obviously, I don’t have any data with the Sharp & Oduya playing in their new uniforms, but by looking at this past season, we can get a reasonable look at how close these two teams really are.
First, here are the With or Without You charts via @IneffectiveMath. If you want to focus on the individual numbers, go ahead, though I’ll be going through offense and defense separately. What strikes me on a macro level, is just how much more tight the grouping is for the Blackhawks than the Stars, especially defensively (y-axis).
It’s the end of the regular season Musical Podcast Extravaganza! The Ladies talk end of the season, playoffs, Calder voting, prove why they shouldn’t pursue careers in musical theater, do a tribute to everyone’s favorite commentator, and have some special “guests” call in.
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My alternative title was HOLY CRAP WE BOUGHT A GOALIE, but everyone’s pretty over Frozen jokes by now. Yes, in case you missed it while you were mysteriously away from the internet for the last two days, Jim Nill traded Lindback and a conditional 2016 3rd pick to the Buffalo Sabres for Jhonas Enroth.
Yes, that goalie that beat him just this past Sunday.
If you’re like me, you have paid very little attention to Buffalo this year, with good reason. They’re pretty terrible. However, Enroth happened to be the hidden diamond amongst all the detritus: in December, Buffalo went on a win streak that was almost entirely spearheaded by his efforts in net.
Enroth is a 26 yr old 5’10”, 165 lb Stockholm native. Yes, you probably can take him. He was a 2nd round pick for the Sabres in 2006, and also plays with the Swedish national team, helping them win Silver in Sochi. This year, he earned the starting goaltending position on the Sabres.
While there is some speculation that he’s going to be challenging Kari for the starting spot on the Stars, I doubt that will be the case, at least not until he proves himself a competent back up. Lindy Ruff is a big fan of Enroth, though, so we’ll see how it goes.
I don’t even really know where to begin with this article. It originally started as me trying to find some rhyme or reason to our Weird Shots Problem (we only win when we lose), morphed into looking at the defensive metrics of the forwards to see if that would correlate to any metric ever, and then, finally, on the verge of tears, I had to look at myself in the mirror and go “Carolyn, this isn’t normal.”
But what really does normal even mean for a Stars fan? Isn’t sitting on the couch, clutching your mouth while staring at the tv during the waning minutes of the 3rd period praying that your team stops shooting long enough to win…isn’t that normal? Isn’t that what most hockey fans are doing this season?
Well, the good news is there are ways to measure “normal” with analytics. It’s called a Standard Deviation. As I briefly mentioned in the Armchair GM article, a standard deviation is the allowable “wiggle room” before a statistic can be significant. Here’s the official definition of the term per Wikipedia.
Usually, large enough data sets will have the majority of data points fall within 1 deviation (up or down) of the mean. If you ever had a test graded on a curve in the US, then you should be familiar with the concept – the majority of students will get Bs & Cs and only the very top and very bottom students get As & Ds, regardless of what % of the questions you answered correctly. Knowing that most data falls within 1 deviation, things that fall outside of that range are what is considered “significant”.*
So with that in mind, I started to take a look at the most confounding numbers the Stars’ have put up this season: Corsi For & Corsi Against. I decided to look at the actual event counts instead of percents because my starting hypothesis is that the Stars have been wildly streaky with shots against, and more consistent with shots for, so separating the two can prove that.